Gravel Burn 2026 weather: what race week will likely feel like

The Nedbank Gravel Burn's second edition runs from 25 to 31 October 2026: seven stages and 697 km of racing, from Graaff-Reinet across the Great Karoo to Shamwari Private Game Reserve in the Eastern Cape bushveld. Here's what that week has usually felt like, stage by stage.

What will the weather be like at the Gravel Burn 2026?

Usually mild and dry, with a breeze that builds through the afternoon. A typical race-week day reached about 26° after 10–14° at dawn, and rain fell on 2 to 3 days in 10 at each stage, usually a few millimetres.

Mornings are the calm part of the day. At 06:00 the wind is usually under 10 km/h and from no set direction. By 15:00 a breeze of 14 to 18 km/h has usually set in from between the west and the south, gusting to about 40 km/h, while much of the age-group field is still out. Windline's engine rated the stages Good on 2 to 7 days in 10, and Tough on 1 to 3.

Where does the wind usually help, and where does it hurt?

In the Karoo, on Stages 1 to 4, the wind was behind the riders more often than against them. From Stage 5, as the route turns south towards the coast, the afternoon wind from the south comes at them.

Graaff-Reinet · startBlaauwaterMerinoGwanishiShamwari · finish1234567Historic

The pros start 15 minutes ahead of the age groups and finish hours sooner, so they see less of the afternoon wind. These numbers are timed for the age-group starts, for a mid-pack rider at about 20 km/h.

What is each stage likely to feel like?

Each stage, with its usual day hour by hour.

Stage 1: Graaff-Reinet to Blaauwater, Sunday 25 October

A kind opener. On the long drag east from about km 15 to Conical Peak (km 41), the wind was more often behind the riders than in their faces, and the day was rated Good on 5 days in 10. Crosswind gusts were the usual reason for a Fair or Tough day: 45 km/h or more on about 3 days in 10.

Stage 2: the Blaauwater loop, Monday 26 October

The coldest start of the week, and the windiest stage on average. Blaauwater was about 10° at dawn, and 5° or less on about 2 mornings in 10. The climb north past Leeukop was more often into the wind, and on about 5 days in 10 the hardest 30 km, up to Kom Pass (1,894 m), took 40% or more extra effort. The return east from Nieu-Bethesda usually had the wind behind.

Stage 3: Blaauwater to Merino, Tuesday 27 October

The longest stage, at 137 km, with a sting at the end. The run east over Wapadsberg Pass and along the Great Fish River more often had the wind behind than against. The final climb to Swaershoek Pass, after 115 km, turns into the afternoon breeze, and that's the red on the map.

Stage 4: the Merino loop, Wednesday 28 October

The quietest day of the week: the shortest stage, the lightest wind and the most Good days, 7 in 10, before the two big days south.

Stage 5: Merino to Gwanishi, Thursday 29 October

The stage most likely to hurt. It had the fewest Good days (2 in 10), the hottest days (33° or more on about 2 days in 10, 35° or more on about 1, and 42° on the hottest in the records), and a headwind adding 15% or more effort on 4 days in 10. The hardest stretch was usually the last third, from about km 93 into the climb near km 107 and on to the finish.

Last year, the stage between the same two camps, Merino and Gwanishi, was neutralised after strong crosswinds, early rain and heat of about 35°.

Stage 6: Gwanishi to Shamwari, Friday 30 October

A short stage that usually heads into the wind most of the way: the highest typical wind cost of the week, about 12% more effort, and a headwind all day on 2 days in 10. The 33 km liaison into the reserve isn't raced or counted here.

Stage 7: the Shamwari loop, Saturday 31 October

The most Tough days of the week, 3 in 10. The first 37 km, north towards Alicedale, usually ran with the wind. After the Assegaai climb (km 56), the road home turns into the afternoon breeze from the south, and on 6 days in 10 the last 30 km took 40% or more extra effort.

Which stage is likely to be toughest?

Stage 7 for the wind, and Stage 5 for everything together. Stage 7's Tough days, 3 in 10, came almost all from the headwind on its last 30 km, on the final day. Stage 5 had the fewest Good days, the hottest days and the most headwind days. Stage 4 is the likeliest easy day.

What should riders pack for the Gravel Burn?

Layers for cold starts, a shell for the wind, and room for extra water. The organiser's packing list has the kit you must carry. From the weather records:

• Arm warmers and a gilet for the starts. Dawn was 10–14°, and at Blaauwater 5° or less on about 2 mornings in 10.
• A windproof layer for the afternoons. Gusts of about 40 km/h are normal by mid-afternoon. On the headwind finishes of Stages 5 and 7, a group helps.
• Sun protection and more fluid than you think on Stage 5. Its 2 padstals on the official map are at km 61 and km 99, and the heat there reached 35° or more on about 1 day in 10.
• A light rain jacket. Rain is the smallest risk: 2 to 3 days in 10, a few millimetres, mostly in the afternoon.
• Warm camp clothes. Nights usually went down to about 10°, and 0° on the coldest morning in the records at Blaauwater.

Supporters need a hat and sunscreen for the afternoon, and a warm layer for the evening.

When does the real forecast open?

Ten days before each stage, in the Windline app: Stage 1's on 15 October, Stage 7's on 21 October. Load a stage's route with your own pace, and Windline rates the day Good, Fair or Tough from the forecast, with the wind on every stretch at the hour you'll get there. From then on, trust the forecast over this preview.

How did we work this out?

Each stage was ridden again on every day from a week before to a week after its date, in each year from 2015 to 2024: 150 days per stage. Each ride followed the organiser's stage line from the age-group start at a steady 20 km/h, padstal stops included, on that day's hourly Copernicus ERA5 weather. Windline's engine, the same one the apps use, rated each ride.

The day's high and its rain are for the local day at the middle of each stage, and dawn is the lowest temperature between midnight and the start. A wet day has 1 mm of rain or more. ERA5's grid cells are about 25 km across, so valley winds, shelter and the coldest hollows don't show, and the climbs aren't in the timing. Historic weather, not a forecast.

Sources: the Nedbank Gravel Burn's route and stage pages (stage lines from its route map, simplified by the organiser) and 2025 results; SuperSport for the 2026 dates and stages; Escape Collective for last year's neutralised stage; ERA5 hourly time series (Hersbach et al., 2020). Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information (2026). Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of the Copernicus information or data it contains.